本篇文章為台北商業大學黃士洲副教授指導貿易談判所黃氏玉銀(英文原稿)及蔡昀錡碩士生(中文翻譯)共同寫作
越南經濟概要 Vietnam Economic Overview
越南是世界上發展最快的國家之一，其經濟已展現出抵禦貿易戰的能力。截至2022年3月18日星期五為止，越南總人口為 98,831,073人。
這種快速的經濟步伐是由於勞動力的改變，從農業轉向製造業、服務業、私人投資、強大的旅遊業、更高的工資以及加速的城市化。出口總值對越南GDP的貢獻越來越大，像是工業、紡織、電子和水海產等行業發展迅速。
越南經濟主要以紡織、食品、家具、塑料和造紙等大型國有工業以及旅遊業和電信業為基礎。到2021年，農業佔GDP的14.8%，佔總勞動力的38%服務業佔國內生產總值的41.6%，就業人數佔總工作力的35%（世界銀行，2022）。
Vietnam is one of the fastest growing countries in the world and its economy has shown resilience to trade wars. The current population of Vietnam is 98,831,073 as of Friday, March 18, 2022
This accelerated economic pace is due to labour shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, private investment, a strong tourist sector, higher wages, and accelerating urbanisation. Exports constitute an increasingly significant contribution to Vietnam’s GDP and certain sectors, such as industrial production, textile, electronics and seafood production have been growing rapidly.
Vietnam’s economy is based on large state-owned industries such as textiles, food, furniture, plastics and paper as well as tourism and telecommunications. Agriculture represented 14.8% of GDP and employs 38% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank, 2022). Services represented 41.6% of GDP and employed 35% of the total workforce in 2021 (World Bank). Main services include tourism and telecommunications.
越南2021~2022疫情狀況/Vietnam’s 2021-22 Covid’s Development
然而，第四波Covid-19的疫情徹底改變了這種情況，2021年對越南經濟來說是艱難的一年，主要與Delta變種病毒有關，它有別於之前的病毒且傳播更快、更危險。
從2021年5月31起，胡志明市及部分省份開始進入社會隔離階段。
此時，越南奉行清零政策，疫情蔓延整個省份到封鎖全市，爭先恐後地在社區內尋找F0（Covid19感染者）進行檢測，“走遍每條小巷，挨家挨戶敲門”，將F0和F1全部隔離集中處理。這導致衛生系統負擔過重，許多醫院向衛生部和政府發出警訊，因為他們沒有足夠的人力資源和醫療設備來治療他們。
收集居民檢測樣本的醫務人員走過胡志明市。攝影：Huu Khoa /法新社Getty
所有車輛不得不停止營運，導致供應鏈中斷，胡志明市糧食嚴重短缺。所有傳統市場和商店都不允許營業。沒有通行證，人們不得離開家園。有時，根本不讓人們外出，所有必需品都會被軍隊買走。
一名婦女從河內的一個臨時路障後面向外看。照片：法新社
城裡所有的道路都佈滿了醫療檢查站，帶刺的鐵絲網圍滿了道路，以防止人們外出。交警會同公職人員定期對“不必要地”外出的人進行檢查和行政處罰。企業要經營，必須實行“三就地”政策，即「就地生產、就地吃飯、就地休息」，全部都必須在公司進行。沒有人可以離開公司。這是越南政府認為將確保“對抗疫情和發展經濟”雙重目標的計劃。到8月，大多數的企業因無力承擔維持“三就地”政策以及負擔工廠內感染的額外費用而尋求幫助。
經過近四個月的防疫措施，感染人數仍然急劇增加。從5月31日的211例，到9月30日重新開放，感染人數超過7,900例/天。特別是封鎖期間的高峰是在9月3日，全國記錄了14,800例，以胡志明市為首。截至2021年9月，越南至少有超過100萬人感染了COVID-19，超過23,000人因COVID-19全球大流行而喪生。
全球大流行給經濟帶來了非常負面的影響，第三季度GDP大幅下滑 – 6.02% 。 許多經濟中心、工業生產中心和大城市在疫情中受到嚴重破壞，例如：胡志明市、河內市、平陽省、同奈市、巴地頭頓省 、隆安省、芹苴市、北江省……
2021年10月11日，政府公布第128/NQ-CP號決議，有關「安全因應、靈活、有效控制 COVID-19 疫情」的臨時規定，標誌著越南自覺放棄“清零政策”，以最好地恢復經濟和社會。這一政策轉變為越南經濟在2022年逐步復甦並繼續發展創造了有利前提。統計總局的報告顯示：「越南2021年第四季度GDP成長了5.22%，而第一季度成長了4.72%，第二季度成長了6.73%，第三季度減少至負6.02%。
As a result, 2021 was a tough year for Vietnam’s economy, with the fourth wave of Covid 19 has dramatically changed the situation, mainly related to the Delta variant, with faster and more dangerous than other previous strains.
From May 31(2021), Ho Chi Minh City and some of the above provinces began to enter the phase of social distancing.
At this time, Vietnam pursued the “Zero – COVID” strategy, epidemic provinces and cities blockade the whole city, race to do testing to find F0(Covid19 infected) in the community, “go every alley, knock door-to-door”. to bring all of F0 and F1 in isolation and concentrated treatment. This leads to an overburdened health system, with many hospitals alerting the Ministry of Health and the Government because they do not have enough human resources and medical equipment to treat them.
Passenger cars and all passenger vehicles had to stop operating, leading to the interruption of the supply chain, and a serious shortage of food in Ho Chi Minh City.
All traditional markets and shops are not allowed to trade. People are not allowed to leave their homes without a pass. At times, people are not allowed to go out at all, all necessities will be bought by the army.
All the roads in the city have sprung up with medical checkpoints, barbed wire fences filled the roads to prevent people from going out. Traffic police together with public officials regularly check and administratively sanction those who go out “unnecessarily”.
Enterprises that want to operate must apply “Three-in-Place” policy, meaning all the production, isolation and accommodation shall be contained at the company. Nobody could leave the production site. This is the plan that the Vietnamese Government believes will ensure the dual goal of “fighting the epidemic and developing the economy”. By August, a series of businesses called for help because they could not afford the additional costs for maintaining the “Three-in-Place” policy as well as the containment of the infection within the factory.
After nearly four months of applying anti-epidemic measures, which were issued gradually and tightened, the number of infections still increased sharply. From 211 cases on May 31, until reopening on September 30, the number of infections was more than 7,900 cases/ day. In particular, the peak during the blockade period was on September 3 with 14,800 cases recorded across the country, led by Ho Chi Minh City.
At least more than 1 million people have been infected with COVID-19, more than 23,000 people have lost their lives to the COVID-19 pandemic in Vietnam as of Sept 2021?
The pandemic had brought a very negative impact on the economy when the GDP fell deeply minus 6.02% in the third quarter . Many provinces and cities that are economic centers, industrial production centers, and large cities have been severely damaged by the pandemic such as: Ho Ch Minh City (胡志明), Ha Noi (河內), Binh Duong (平陽), Dong Nai (同奈), Ba Ria – Vung Tau (巴地頭頓), Long An (隆安), Can Tho (芹苴), Bac Giang (北江)…
On October 11, 2021, the Government issued Resolution 128/NQ-CP promulgating the temporary regulation “Safely adapting, flexibly, and effectively controlling the COVID-19 epidemic”, marking the main fact that Vietnam is consciously abandoning the “Zero COVID-19” strategy in order to best recover the economy and society. This strategic shift has created a favorable premise for Vietnam’s economy to gradually recover and continue to develop in 2022.
The report of the General Statistics Office said: Vietnam’s GDP in the fourth quarter increased by 5.22% in 2021 over the same period last year, while the increase in the first quarter was 4.72%, in the second quarter was 6.73 %, in the third quarter was negative 6.02%.
2022年越南經濟前景/2022 Economic Prospect of Vietnam
進入2022年，根據國際組織的預測，世界經濟將相對積極復甦，成長在4.1%-4.6%之間。胡志明市在2022年前2個月的收入接近90億美元，已重回越南出口總值“冠軍”的位置。
雖然全球經濟成長將放緩，但與越南有較多外貿關係的國家成長預期較好，因此對生產資料和消費品的需求將增加，尤其是美國市場仍是越南出口的主要來源。對歐盟國家而言，隨著自由貿易協定（FTA）逐步付諸實施，將會有突破性進展。因此，預計2022年進出口總值將增加15%-20%左右，加工及出口製造業等將具有較高的成長前景，像是農業、林業、水產等。
越南決定從2022年3月15日起全面重新向遊客開放邊境 。越南衛生部宣布，進入越南的外國人只需在72小時內提供 Covid-19 檢測陰性證明，且無需隔離。
美國和其他國家最近的調查顯示，前往越南的需求急劇增加。因此，國際旅遊業復甦有望幫助越南今年的GDP增加至少3%，並在2023年中國遊客重返越南市場時有更顯著的表現。
儘管俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵正在影響全球經濟，但到目前為止，越南似乎並未受到衝突的太大影響。但是，目前越南對俄羅斯的紡織品和服裝出口占10.5%。俄羅斯和烏克蘭都是越南在歐亞地區一直以來的重要貿易夥伴。因此，如果俄烏衝突持續下去，勢必會影響兩國的貿易往來。此外，一些航運公司拒絕接受從越南到俄羅斯的航運訂單。運費除了持續飆升，運輸延誤也將嚴重影響貨物貿易。
綜上所述，越南2022年的經濟情勢雖然面臨諸多困難，但也有不少“亮點”——重新開放部分工業園區以維持商品出口，為遊客開放邊境。 2022年，隨著政府適當和即時的政策以及企業和人民的活力和創造力，越南經濟一定會繁榮發展。政府提出的2022年6.0%-6.5%的成長目標已經完全實現，甚至可能更高。
Huynh Thanh Dien博士表示：「越南肯定會在2022年有良好的出口表現。原因有很多種，第一是當世界經濟好轉時，出口訂單會增加。第二是美中貿易戰是增加越南產品在美國市場佔比的機會。最後，貿易協定和自由貿易協定也有利於越南的出口。」
Entering 2022, according to forecasts of international organizations, the world economy will recover relatively positively, the growth rate will be in the range of 4.1 – 4.6%.
Ho Chi Minh City has returned to the position of “champion” of the country’s exports when it earned nearly 9 billion USD in the first 2 months of 2022.
Although global economic growth will slow down, those countries with large foreign trade relations with Vietnam have good growth forecasts, so the demand for production materials and consumer goods will increase, especially the US market is still the main source of Vietnam’s exports. For EU countries, there will be breakthroughs with free trade agreements (FTAs) gradually coming into practice. Therefore, import and export turnover in 2022 is forecasted to have a growth rate of about 15-20%, the manufacturing industries for export will have high growth prospects such as processing and manufacturing; agricultural, forestry, aquatic products, etc.
Vietnam decided to fully re-open its borders to tourists from March 15, 2022. The Vietnam’s Ministry of Health announced that foreigners entering Vietnam only need to furnish a negative Covid-19 test certificate within 72 hours and are not required to quarantine.
Recent surveys in the US and some other countries indicate that demand to travel to Vietnam has sharply increased. Therefore, the partial recovery of international tourism is expected to help Vietnam’s GDP rise by at least 3 percent this year, and further in 2023 when Chinese tourists return to the Vietnamese market.
Though Russian invasion on Ukraine is impacting the global economy, Vietnam seems not too much effected by the conflict to this date. However, currently Vietnam’s textile and garment exports to Russia account for 10.5%. Both Russia and Ukraine are traditional and important trading partners of Vietnam in the Eurasian region. Therefore, if the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists, it will certainly certainly affect the trade with these two countries. In addition, some shipping lines have refused to accept shipping orders from Vietnam to Russia. Freight rates will continue to soar along with shipping delays that will seriously affect the trade of goods.
In summary, the economic picture of Vietnam 2022, although facing many difficulties, also has many “bright spots”-re-opening some industrial parks to maintain the export of goods, open border for tourists. In 2022, along with implementing appropriate and timely policies of the Government and the dynamism and creativity of businesses and people, Vietnam’s economy will certainly prosper. The growth target in 2022 according to the Government of 6.0-6.5% is completely achieved and maybe even higher.
According to Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien :”Vietnam will have for sure in 2022 is that exports will be good. This comes from many reasons, firstly, when the world economy grows better, export orders will increase. Second, the US-China trade war is an opportunity to increase the market share of Vietnamese products in the US, along with trade agreements and FTAs that always open up many opportunities for exports”.
資料來源Reference：
- http://daidoanket.vn/bat-mach-kinh-te-nam-2022-5679047.html
- https://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/news/vietnamnews/vietnam-trade-may-be-significantly-hit-by-russia-ukraine-conflict-03172022081513.html
- http://consosukien.vn/trien-vong-kinh-te-viet-nam-nam-2022.htm
- https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/covid-19-vietnam-travel-updates-restrictions.html/#:~:text=Vietnam%20has%20cut%20the%20centralized,days%20after%20the% 20 隔離%20 期。
- https://e.vnexpress.net/news/life/children-orphaned-by-covid-grow-up-in-alien-environments-4406125.html
- https://vtv.vn/kinh-te/bao-chi-quoc-te-lac-quan-ve-trien-vong-kinh-te-viet-nam-nam-2022-20220221104258877.htm
